As India braces itself for the 2024 general election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has claimed significant victories in three major state elections, leading Modi to confidently predict a “hat-trick” and secure the 2024 victory. With less than six months until the polls, the campaign season has kicked off vigorously, prompting concerns about what a potential third term for Modi could mean for the nation, especially amid escalating Hindu-Muslim tensions.
In the current political landscape, analysts widely view a BJP win as the most plausible outcome. Modi’s popularity as a political strongman, coupled with the BJP’s Hindu nationalist agenda, continues to resonate with the large Hindu majority, particularly in the populous Hindi belt of the north. However, this success has been marred by accusations of consolidating power, stifling media, compromising judicial independence, and using government agencies against political opponents.
While regional opposition to the BJP exists in south and east India, the national opposition, mainly the Indian National Congress party, is perceived as fragmented and weak. A coalition of major opposition parties, known as INDIA, has yet to unite on crucial issues, though they pledge to collectively combat the BJP.
Political analysts suggest that a BJP win is almost inevitable, with the focus shifting to factors shaping the scale of the victory. The BJP has initiated a nationwide pre-election push, deploying thousands of government officers for a roadshow and setting up “selfie points” to highlight Modi’s successes over the past nine years.
The recent BJP dominance in state elections seemed to reaffirm Modi’s popularity. Campaign speeches emphasized welfare schemes, nationalistic rhetoric, and religious communalism, providing a glimpse of the BJP’s strategy for the upcoming national election.
However, concerns loom about the potential impact of a third Modi term. Economic challenges, including job creation and inflation, may influence voting, and the BJP’s position in crucial states like Bihar and Maharashtra remains uncertain. Analysts fear the exacerbation of Hindu-Muslim divides, with the BJP expected to focus on the inauguration of the Ram Mandir, a grand Hindu temple built in place of a demolished mosque.
Some anticipate that Modi’s third term could see further erosion of democracy and minority rights. Critics warn of a scenario resembling the Jim Crow laws, establishing Hindu supremacy and marginalizing Muslims, potentially depriving them of voting rights.
BJP representatives, however, reject allegations of communalism, asserting that minorities have not faced discrimination under their governance. As the election fervor intensifies, India awaits the outcome, mindful of the potential implications of a continued BJP rule under Modi’s leadership.