The season of elections has arrived, with this fervor set to engulf India for the next 6-7 months until the installation of a new government at the Centre in May 2024. The assembly elections in five states – Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan, and Telangana – mark the initial step toward the grand finale in 2024.

While each state election has its unique characteristics, there are striking similarities among them. Let’s delve into the overarching themes of the 2023 state elections.

  1. The Elections Are OpenAs polling day approaches, it becomes increasingly evident that there are no clear favorites. Leaders like Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh are grappling with voter fatigue despite efforts to reinvent themselves. In Rajasthan, Ashok Gehlot is giving the BJP a tough competition, striving to break the tradition of alternating governments.
  2. Ruling Governments Facing ChallengesIncumbent governments across states are fighting to retain power, with close contests expected. The anti-incumbency sentiment is prevalent, and the economy is a point of concern for all governments.
  3. Sitting MLAs Face Anti-IncumbencyInterestingly, despite relative satisfaction with governments in opinion surveys, there is significant anti-incumbency at the local level against sitting MLAs. The performance of these MLAs is affecting the prospects of governments led by popular Chief Ministers.
  4. Vocal for Local: Recognizing the importance of local candidates, the BJP has shifted its strategy to prioritize local candidates over high-command campaigning. Local candidates are crucial for voters in their decision-making process.
  5. Seat-By-Seat ContestsThese elections are turning into seat-by-seat contests, unlike highly presidential-style elections. Managing such a contest is challenging for any incumbent government.
  6. Economic ConcernsThe economy is a major concern for both the central and state governments. Unemployment and price rise are top issues in these elections, with voters comparing their economic well-being under the current regime to the previous one.
  7. Current vs Future BeneficiariesThe BJP relies on its central and state government schemes to secure support, while the Congress promises better and more progressive schemes to attract voters. Voters are weighing the benefits offered by each party.
  8. Women’s Power: Female voters play a significant role in these elections, and their preferences can shape the outcomes. Parties are vying for the support of women through various promises and narratives.
  9. Caste Census vs HindutvaThe Opposition aims to unite various groups through promises of a caste census, countering the BJP’s Hindutva narrative. The BJP hopes that its socio-economic class-based support will offset this impact.
  10. Late Deciders

A significant portion of voters remains undecided until the last moment. These late deciders can sway the results, making the elections highly unpredictable.

These overarching themes define the dynamics of the 2023 state elections, where no party can claim a clear advantage, and the final outcome remains uncertain.